Tag Archives: Climate Risk

What the latest IPCC report means for your net-zero target [with video]

The IPCC’s recently-released report, Climate Change 2021: the Physical Science Basis has issued the strongest call yet for urgent and deep cuts to be made to global greenhouse gas emissions.

The Working Group I Report says the window in which to deliver the “deep emissions cuts” needed to prevent the worst impacts of climate change is closing rapidly.

A key message from the report is that rapid reductions in emissions are required this decade to prevent long-term ecological and climate breakdown, with every fraction of a degree making a huge difference in avoiding a climate disaster.

The IPCC’s report five emission scenarios

The report examines five illustrative scenarios, which are[1]:

  1. Doubling of carbon emissions by 2050
  2. Doubling of carbon emissions by 2100
  3. Carbon emissions stay at current levels to mid-century
  4. Net-zero after 2050, and net negative emissions later in the century
  5. Net-zero around 2050, and net negative emissions later in the century

 

Figure 1: The five emission scenarios used in the latest IPCC report

The bad news is that in all five scenarios, the best estimate is that we will pass 1.5C in the 2030s, even under the rapid mitigation scenarios.

The lowest scenario for carbon emissions was designed to create a pathway to limit warming to 1.5C. So, if your organisation is committed to reach net-zero by around mid-century, then this scenario is the only one realistically available, provided you act now to reduce your emissions significantly this decade.

 

Figure 2: IPCC’s five emission scenarios[2]
So how much carbon can we still emit under a 1.5C scenario? This is what the next section on the remaining carbon budget will answer.

Carbon budget – how much carbon can we still emit?

The main driver of long-term warming is the total cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases over time. Carbon budgets are based on the fact that the amount of global warming can be approximated to cumulative carbon emissions.

We have a 50/50 chance to limit warming to 1.5C if we stay within a global carbon budget of 500 billion tonnes. At pre-pandemic global emission rates, this gives us under 11 years before we exceed 1.5C.

 

Figure 3: Remaining carbon budget. Figure adapted from FAQs from latest IPCC report

If we want a better chance – two in three – of achieving around 1.5C of warming by mid-century, then we can emit just 400 billion tonnes globally, and we have even less time to act.

Scenarios versus risk management

The problem with using these scenarios is that organisations tend to overlook the uncertainty that is involved with these scenarios. To say that we can emit 500 billion tonnes of carbon and still stay at around 1.5C of warming is incorrect – it simply gives a 50/50 chance that this will be the outcome. And at 400 billion tonnes, we have a two thirds chance of getting to around 1.5C.

Those odds are OK but not great. If a new product or service had a one-in-two or a one-in-three chance of being unsuccessful, you might want to invest further resources in a solution to ensure a higher chance of success. It should be the same for your business’ climate response.

Where to from here?

If we make deep cuts to emissions now, and keep going to rapidly decarbonise by 2040 or earlier then we may have a chance of keeping temperature increase to a safe level. We only have a small carbon budget remaining to limit warming to 1.5C. Meeting this goal is still achievable if we act quickly and decisively.

Starting today, making deep emissions cuts, and persisting on this path for years is the only response from governments and business that can achieve this.

So what immediate three steps can you take in your business?

1) Set a net-zero target that recognises the climate emergency

2) Develop a comprehensive carbon footprint and plan to decarbonise rapidly

3) Don’t wait – implement your plan

 

[1] IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press, Figure SPM.8: Selected indicators of global climate change under the five illustrative scenarios used in this report

[2] Graphs from IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, Yelekçi, R. Yu and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press, Figure SPM.8: Selected indicators of global climate change under the five illustrative scenarios used in this report

Where can you get help?

100% Renewables are experts in helping organisations develop their carbon footprint net-zero strategies. If you need help, please contact  Barbara or Patrick.

Feel free to use an excerpt of this blog on your own site, newsletter, blog, etc. Just send us a copy or link and include the following text at the end of the excerpt: “This content is reprinted from 100% Renewables Pty Ltd’s blog.

5 key considerations for Climate Emergency Plans [includes video]

This blog post follows on from the one last week. I recently presented to the Maribyrnong community in Melbourne on emissions trends and barriers to the uptake of renewables, as well as considerations for the development of climate emergency plans. Today’s article discusses five key considerations.

You can also watch me talk about these five key considerations in this 5-min video:

About the Climate Emergency

The problem of rising GHG emissions

Global temperatures are rising and will continue to grow. Without globally significant efforts, greenhouse gas emissions may increase to over 100 billion tonnes annually by 2100, which is double current emissions. Even if all countries met their current pledges under the Paris Agreement, we are on track to exceed 1.5°C of warming (above pre-industrial temperatures), and to then increase by 3-5°C by 2100 — with additional warming beyond.

Projected temperature increase according to Climate Action Tracker

Figure 1: Projected temperature increase according to Climate Action Tracker

Rising global temperature causes catastrophic impacts, such as bushfires, droughts, floods, severe weather events, heat waves, rising sea levels and disruptions to our food supply.

By how much do we need to decrease emissions to have a ‘safe climate’?

According to climate science, a safe climate is one where global temperature increase stays less than 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures. We need to decrease our emissions by 45% from 2010 to 2030 and then to net-zero by mid-century to give us a 50/50 chance of meeting this target. This means that we need to almost halve our emissions by 2030.

Emitting greenhouse gases under a ‘current policies’ scenario means that climate risk will be catastrophic. Incremental change is not enough to get climate risk to an acceptable level. The only way this risk can be adequately managed is by rapid action.

Declaring a climate emergency

Declaring a climate emergency recognises that aiming for net-zero by 2050 may be too late. It means that your climate efforts need to

  • start now,
  • increase in scale rapidly and
  • continue for decades.

In 2016, Darebin City Council in Victoria was the first government in the world to declare a climate emergency. Now, as of the 1st of May, 95 Australian local governments have made the same declaration.

Following the declaration of a climate emergency, you need to develop a Climate Emergency Plan that sets out how you will help address the climate emergency.

5 key considerations for developing Climate Emergency Plans

Consideration #1: Net-zero ASAP

If your council declares a climate emergency, you should aim to achieve net-zero emissions for your LGA as soon as possible, for instance by 2030. You may even need to target negative emissions by mid-century by incorporating drawdown measures.

Drawdown is the projected point in time when the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere stops increasing and begins to reduce. Drawdown can only be achieved by removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, such as through agriculture and forestry.

Consideration #2: Include adaptation and resilience in your plan

Climate change is not some distant impact in the future. It’s here, and it’s affecting us already. Your climate emergency plan needs to include actions on how your council and community can adapt to climate change, in addition to reducing your carbon emissions.

Adaptation for council operations means that built assets, such as roads, stormwater drains and buildings, may not be able to withstand flooding, fire and intense storms. It means that your zoning and planning decisions will probably need to change and that there may be an increased demand for council services, such as water supply or community support for the elderly. Your area may also experience food supply issues. You will need to have emergency response plans for severe weather events, heat waves, flooding and bushfires and need to risk-assess the impacts on your community and corporate services.

Council also needs to help the community be resilient in the face of climate change. Resilience is the ability to withstand and recover from climate change impacts. As an example, you could help the community grow their own food and to develop resilience plans that assist your residents and businesses in bouncing back after a disaster.

Consideration #3: Include the community

Emissions for the operations of a local government are much smaller than overall community emissions. It is not uncommon for council’s emissions to only constitute 1% of overall emissions in the LGA. It’s not enough to focus on how council itself can mitigate against and adapt to climate change; the plan also needs to incorporate the community.

Climate emergency plan for the community should be developed with the community, by involving them through surveys and workshops, and by forming environmental advisory committees.

Emissions for council operations are small in comparison to community emissions

Figure 2: Emissions for council operations are small in comparison to community emissions

Consideration #4: Everyone must act

While the Federal and State governments have the greatest levers to reduce carbon emissions, local governments are closest to their communities. They play an important role in both mitigation and adaptation.

However, a council cannot alone bear the weight of emissions reduction and adapting to climate change in a community. Householders, business and all levels of government must collaborate to achieve the goals.

Local governments are in a great position to work directly with the community and to help them with addressing climate change rapidly. Council should also lobby other local governments, the state and federal governments to be more ambitious in their climate change action.

Consideration #5: Solutions already exist – they just need to be implemented

It’s easy to defer action by claiming that in future, better solutions will exist. The fact is though, that we already have all the solutions we need to mitigate against climate change. They only need to be implemented and fast.

It’s crucial to extend the scope of a climate emergency plan to a wide area of impact categories. Key solution areas of climate emergency plans are energy efficiency, solar PV, grid decarbonisation, transport, waste, buying clean energy, consumption of goods and services, emerging technologies, governance and leadership, forestry and agriculture, climate risk, clean energy generation, stationary fuel switching, education, and planning & development.

Key solution areas of climate emergency plans

Figure 3: Key solution areas of climate emergency plans

Within those solution areas, the biggest levers to achieve emission reduction in the community are solar panels on as many roofs as possible, energy efficiency in homes and businesses, electrification of space and water heating, electric vehicles, and waste diversion from landfill.

100% Renewables are experts in developing climate action strategies, both for council operations, as well as for the community. If you need help to develop your Climate Change Strategy, please contact  Barbara or Patrick.

Feel free to use an excerpt of this blog on your own site, newsletter, blog, etc. Just send us a copy or link and include the following text at the end of the excerpt: “This content is reprinted from 100% Renewables Pty Ltd’s blog.